According to the betting markets, the spill is on.

In the last week we’ve heard from so many commentators on this whole affair.  They’ve ranged from political journalists, backbenchers, cabinet ministers and the Prime Minister himself.

They’ve all got some sort of connection to the players. They’ve all got some some of vested interest in this and as a consequence you have to take their words with a grain of salt.abbott npc

History shows that as soon are people are saying publicly, “The Prime Minister has my full support,” typically he or she doesn’t really.

In these times often the only true commentators are the bookmakers.  These men and women put their money where their mouths are.  Their odds are based on their perceptions of the situation, but most importantly on the weight of money invested.

Often bookmakers markets are the only true guide.

Sportsbet has up to the minute markets on all things leadership.

The most telling market is : Coalition Leader At The Next Federal Election

Tony Abbott is the favourite by the skin of his teeth.

It reads like this.

2.25 Tony Abbott

2.75 Malcolm Turnbull

3.00 Julie Bishop

14.00 Scott Morrison

17.00 Joe Hockey

So, the consensus is, Tony Abbott will survive….just.

Although…one of the other markets on offer is : Will Abbott Face A Leadership Ballot (Before the next election)

Yes is the odds on favourite at $1.18 with No at $4.50.

So Sportsbet punters are convinced it will come to a ballot….but when ?

Well, the favourite is sometime between now and April at $1.70. Second fave is between April and August at $3.75

And the crunch market : Sworn In Govt After Next Election…who wins the thing.shorten

Sportsbet cannot separate them.  It’s $1.87 each of two.

As far as Labor leadership goes, Bill Shorten is unchallenged as the man to lead the Opposition to the next poll.  He’s $1.15 with Tanya Plibersek at $6.50. If you want to have a lazy dollar on Kevin Rudd returning to lead the party, Sportsbet will give you 500/1